I want to suggest a way of looking at the Trump administration which may be useful in evaluating how the government functions for the foreseeable future. Triumvirate was not the first word that came to mind. I was toying with Trump's Triple Play for the alliterative strengths and sports metaphor. I also thought to call it Trump's Trinity as the three parts are in some sense separate and part of a unified whole but it failed to express the reality of the United States' new government. It's not a trinity because it's not very unified. No, Triumvirate is probably most apt even if I am discussing more than three individuals, as past Triumvirates have been.
The key aspect to any Triumvirate is the tension between each constituent. Antony could not assume too much power because Octavian and Lepidus would be more than capable of opposing him. At least that's the logic. It's a method supposedly built to constrain the power of any one member. It also failed in spectacular fashion. The governing Triumvirate now ruling the Unites States is not like this. The three components are not set in tension so that one may not overpower the others. Rather, each part of this Triumvirate supports the objectives of the whole. Let me explain who and what the compose our new rulers and that may illuminate why I like this way of viewing our present dystopia.
At the top is, of course President Donald J Trump. With him are his family and a cadre of his elite supporters. These are the billionaires and elitists who supported his run as well as those who quickly came to the table afterward. Goldman Sachs, for example. Much of his cabinet also falls in this category except the few career politicians and military who belong in the next category. The central purpose of this group is the use of government power for private gain. This group's, Trump's family, friends, and allies, main goal is the extraction of every possible penny from the government's (public's) coffers. They are here to profit and their actions and policies will be in support of that end.
On the right sits the Republican political class. Of special importance here are those who most supported Trump's agenda. Mike Pence leads this class in our new government and is the very embodiment of the connections Trump relies on there. Congressional Republicans with a majority in both houses are going to be responsible for legislating Trump's will. They must create the means by which Trump's agents can extract wealth from the government and public. However, that is not their agenda. Some areas like tax cuts serve both but on the whole, they are pushing for conservative legislative victories: repeal the ACA, enable states to discriminate against LGBTQQA, minorities and Muslims, and make significant cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Some of these do not overlap with Trump's goals but will be necessary negotiating positions so that he can privatise education and grant infrastructure handouts to private companies among other initiatives. Whatever they replace the ACA with is likely to be a morass of demands on both sides.
On the left is the final member of the Triumvirate, the people who voted for Trump and the media machine which organizes and
misinforms them. Trump owes his success to his populist appeal and his populist appeal was successful because he went low. The Trump base is only satisfied by the idea that their straight talker is getting things done. They want him to appear active and to score "wins" for them. It does not matter that these wins are mostly symbolic or even outright false. It does not matter that the wins come at the expense of minorities, women, or any other group. In fact, it's probably better if they do. The power of Trump's base is it's overwhelming control of the future of Congress. The Senate, especially, has several seats up for reelection in 2018 which are solidly Republican but Trump, should he remain popular with his base, will likely exert a lot of influence. Remembering the Tea Party wave in the 2010 midterms and the trouncing of mainstream republicans in the primaries last year, Congressional Republicans feel a need to keep Trump's supporters happy. Trump for his part needs to just keep being himself: brash, offensive, and claim victories at every opportunity. Conservative media, radio and alternative sources beyond Fox News are going to carry a lot of this burden and have, so far, been excellent PR on Trump's behalf.
So that's our new leadership, in a nutshell. Trump, the GOP, and his base. Literally nobody else matters for policy making. Trump does not need the democrats to cooperate on anything. He does not care about the Americans who voted against him. They lost. Try again in four years.
How will this play out? How is this a tool for analysis? Trump needs to balance these three groups in order to accomplish what he wants just as these groups need to balance their activities in order to get what they want. Trump has to concede to some congressional republican proposals if he wants his corrupt redistribution to work. He also needs to give the base wins or he risks appearing unpopular with the base that elected him. That would embolden the GOP to break ranks. Similarly, he needs the media on his side and they want viewers/listeners. All three have to show some give and take or the Triumvirate fails.
Soon to be Example 1: Infrastructure spending.
Trump's proposed infrastructure package satisfies all three members' needs. First, Trump gets $1,000,000,000,000.00 in public money to distribute to private corporations. Firms are likely salivating over the prospects. These so called public private partnerships have a checkered history with several prominent examples of outright failure requiring
more public money. How's congress placated? In two ways: ideologically, they like that's it's not spending done through state DoT or other government agencies. Also, Trump's pick for Transportation Secretary is the wife of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. What better way to get the leader of the GOP on your side than to give his wife a trillion dollar spending account? The voters and media get a "win" and will assume that the infrastructure spending will translate into a lot of jobs and better infrastructure. That's not always the case with these kinds of projects but reality doesn't matter.
Soon to be Example 2: Education Reform
Trump's nominee Betsy DeVos wants a strong voucher program with the intended result being money flowing into private, religious, and venture capital run charter schools. Federal dollars (and any states that want to hop on this bandwagon) will be attached to the children instead of doled out to states and schools. This way kids can go to Vacation Bible School and it will receive federal funding (this is the part congress likes, as well as the way it marginalizes traditional public schools). Billionaires like DeVos will make a lot of money because their hedge funds and VC firms own a lot of these charter schools. It's basically a handout to them whereas before they were accountable (admittedly not very) to the states for meeting some expectations. So this is a big giveaway to the 1% and satisfies the Trump allies part of the Triumvirate. As a side note, did you know that Erik Prince, DeVos's brother and founder of the mercenary war criminals Blackwater is an advisor to Trump? Crazy the connections! So, what do the people get out of this? School choice. The biggest success in states that have implemented school choice isn't that the schools are better or that kids learn more. Nope. The biggest success is that parents are happier. They like that they picked the school and they feel like they are empowered. Outcomes be damned, it makes people happier. Also, the whites like that they don't have to send their kids to school with black kids. Triumvirate satisfied.
Soon to be Example 3: Health Care
This is a bit of an odd one. Trump is pushing ahead for a quick repeal of the ACA and isn't just making noise, he's signing executive orders to cripple the law at an administrative level. The ACA is deeply unpopular as a concept even though the public widely supports its components. So, the public and media get their win. ACA is going to be gone. How about Congress? In the lead up to inauguration week, the republicans were leaning toward a delay and replace strategy which has since vanished from their discourse. Republicans are looking for a few things: no tax increases, no significant regulations, and completely removing anything relating to reproductive rights or women's healthcare. The libertarian leaning wing led by Speaker Ryan also wants dramatic cuts to Medicare/Medicaid. The latter is probably a non-starter with Trump unless a replacement can somehow be written in a way that directly benefits Trump and Trump allies. Maybe it will have something to do with Trump's son and law Jared Kushner? You know, Ivanka's husband? The one he just hired on staff now that the Trump Justice Department said it's totally legal and ethical. Yeah, that guy! He's got a healthcare company called Oscar. Oscar is an insurer funded and partly run by Mr. Kushner and supplies insurance on New York's ACA marketplace. In fact, some called Trump out for being against the ACA while he had family members making millions supplying ACA subsidized health insurance! I'd imagine that, although gutting the ACA will be bad for Oscar in the short run, Jared will be in an excellent position to capitalize on Obamacare's replacement.
This post is getting a bit long winded. Perhaps I'm not being all that clear. It's been a long time since I've blogged anything and my writing reflexes are maybe not up to the task. The overall point is this: every major initiative by Trump or by the GOP held Congress is best understood through this Triumvirate. Each partner is going to have to be made happy in order for anything to go through. As new policy is being made, evaluate how Trump and his cabinet of kleptocrats are going to make themselves rich. Evaluate how the GOP gets more conservative laws on the books. Evaluate how the policy is going to be sold to the Trump base. That's been how I approach analysing things so far and it's quite good. As we look at immigration reform, trade, foreign policy, energy, climate change, and all the other big issues I'm forgetting to mention, remember the Triumvirate. When Trump or his allies say something outrageous, ask if it's an attempt to woo the base. If the Republicans pass laws which aren't very Republican, ask what they're getting in return. If it's obvious a deal is going to make Trump or his allies rich but congress is just rubber stamping it through, maybe there's a big conservative issue where Trump's giving them support.
As far as Triumvirates go, they are doomed to failure. Either one of the three can't sustain enough power to remain relevant (Lepidus was a ninny) or they reach irreconcilable differences and there's gridlock (the first triumvirate until somebody died). Triumvirates are remarkably stable right up until the point where they're not. As soon as it falters the whole structure ceases to function. Our new governing Triumvirate is no different. Trump needs the GOP Congress. The GOP Congress needs Trump. Both need the Trump base. The Trump base needs bread and circuses, mostly, and maybe a sense of greatness too. Who will be the first to break? How? Will Trump become too obviously greedy and corrupt thereby losing congressional and popular support? Doubtful. It would have happened already. Will Trump be too at odds with Congress to get anything passed? Also unlikely. He's a good dealmaker and knows how to give congress what it wants while getting what he wants in return.
No, I think the people are the weaker part in this Triumvirate. I think Americans have short memories and will need to be constantly showered with positive victories. Trump's Americans need to see a wall. They need to see jobs and factories come back on a large scale. They need to see Blacks and Latinos struggle to succeed so as to validate their own greatness. Frankly, I just don't see how that's going to be possible. Repealing the ACA will be catastrophic for so many people and there's no good GOP replacement. Hell, the ACA
was the GOP replacement back when Hillary was campaigning for universal coverage in the early 90s. Trade wars aren't good for jobs. Especially not when we have such a globalized marketplace. Higher prices, expensive (or no) healthcare, and a collapse of any exports (of which there are few anyway) will not make Americans who expect to all be working in auto-factories and steel mills very happy. Add in the new toll roads popping up everywhere thanks to our public-private partnerships and the crappy public schools you're stuck sending your kids to because rich people took all the good private spots. Now that's a recipe for disaster. The people who voted for Trump are going to be hurt the most by him and by the conservative policies fronted by congressional republicans. How they keep supporting him in 2 years or in 4 years is beyond me. Unless it works and America sees a huge economic boom, the public that elected Donald Trump isn't going to be reelecting him. The Triumvirate will work until the people realize they're being shafted and the "wins" aren't helping them at all.
