Sunday, December 27, 2009

America's declining power.

Since Channing's last post dealt with China's ascendancy, I figured I'd post on America's inevitable decline. The money quote for my post comes by way of Brad. DeLong:

"When you have the money--and "you" are a big, economically and culturally vital nation--you get more than just a higher standard of living for your citizens. You get power and influence, and a much-enhanced ability to act out. When the money drains out, you can maintain the edge in living standards of your citizens for a considerable time (as long as others are willing to hold your growing debts and pile interest payments on top). But you lose power, especially the power to ignore others, quite quickly--though, hopefully, in quiet, nonconfrontational ways. An you lose influence--the ability to have your wishes, ideas, and folkways willingly accepted, eagerly copied, and absorbed into daily life by others. As with good parenting, you hope that by the time this happens those ideas and ways have been so thoroughly integrated that they have become part of what is normal and regular abroad as well as at home; sometimes, of course, they don't. In either case, the end is inevitable: you must become, recognize that you have become, and act like a normal country. For America, this will be a shock: American has not been a normal country for a long, long time..."


China is the largest foreign holder of our debt and they are quickly moving toward a point where they will not buy any more if it. Here we have a deputy governor of China's central bank explaining the situation. The US is buying less stuff so our creditors have less money to lend back to us. As the DeLong quote points out, the lifestyle of American citizens depends very much on our ability to create debt. We are at a point where China basically holds all the cards but does not hold the grandiose ideas America has always had. China does not care about being a peace keeping nation. China does not care about spreading its culture or its system of government around the world (something new for a superpower, it seems). However, China will act (as I noted in the comment to Channing's post) to protect its own power. 


What that all means? I'm not really sure yet. US foreign policy in the past century was largely driven by two factors: Containment and Oil (or maybe just resources - natural and labor - in general). When we weren't opposing the spread of Communism, we were ensuring the adequate flow of oil for our ever-growing economy. China doesn't seem too interested on spreading Communism or fighting Democracy but it does need resources. We've seen it hesitant to pressure Sudan over the Darfur situation because Sudan supplies China with oil. Perhaps a good parallel for Modern China is Imperial Japan. The country was quick to modernize and its aggressive spread across Asia and the Pacific was largely an effort to secure the resources necessary to run its empire.

There are a few problems with this comparison of course. I do not see any similar ultra-nationalistic streak in China. Nor do I see a move toward militarism. The World of China's rising power is far different from the world of Imperial Japan's. One big change is the advent of neo-liberal Economics. Free trade (and the small wars/revolutions and other covert actions required to maintain it) precludes expansionist policies. Why invade and occupy a country over resources when you can just buy the resources up front? This is pretty much why the colonial system collapsed - not because of revolution or social movements, but because actually owning the land where the resources are located became unnecessary. In the world of China's rising power, China does not need to maintain an Empire. It needs to maintain beneficial trade arrangements. Whether these will be true "free trade" arrangements or more slanted forms of trade remains to be seen. 



I want to link the article I put in the comments again because I think it gives a very interesting/post-modern/pessimistic view of how international affairs will run in the near future.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Copenhagen

I don't mean to be a drive-by linker but the following article was brought to my attention about Copenhagen and I noticed there hasn't been too much discussion here about it.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Alex's recent post on the Health care bill:

Alex, December 15 at 1:45pm

The Senate has never made any sense to me. How in the world can a body claim to be democratic when Wyoming (pop: 532,668) has the same representation as California (pop: 36,756,666). Of course they would screw up health care reform. So Lieberman is trying to delay (kill?) this bill, but why? What's the guys ultimate goal? I've heard he wants to be Defense Secretary so is he trying to screw up the Senate so much that Obama makes him the next Defense Secretary just to get him out of the Senate? Or is he just getting bullied around by Connecticut's insurance giants? I guess what I'm getting at is that I have no idea what his endgame is. An even better question is what's going to happen when they try to reconcile the House and Senate bills. Apparently they are going to look very different. Favor the House bill and screw over the moderate Dems in the Senate (although maybe they'd have political cover because they tried their best to move reform to the right)? I get the idea very few people, with the exception of Obama for just having it done, are going to be happy with how this bill turns out.

A real chance for Financial Regulation?

It looks like there is a substantial move afoot to reinstate Glass-Steagall. The bill was removed a few years back basically to allow Citi bank to merge with an investment firm and create the biggest bank in the world. That being said, Health Care reform has turned into a mess. What's going to stop financial reform from going the same way? Every member of Congress is going to look to get their interests taken care of regardless of the goals of any bill.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/226938
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arMrSVjq4cts&pos=1
and good ole' Volker has been on a recent press tour. Here's a statement he made back in September.
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/volcker.pdf

Why should bankers recieve the most benefit from gov't stimulus?

 It sounds a lot like Trickle down Regan-omics.

 Basically, it is the most possible of two options. The other being nationalizing the banks and forcing them to lend.

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/12/we-are-live-at-the-week-i-did-not-run-for-office-to-be-helping-out-a-bunch-of-fat-cat-bankers.html

Joe Lieberman does not have a secret plan.

A New Republic blogger argues that Lieberman doesn't really know what he is doing.

"I think one answer here is that Lieberman isn't actually all that smart. He speaks, and seems to think, exclusively in terms of generalities and broad statements of principle. But there's little evidence that he's a sharp or clear thinker, and certainly no evidence that he knows or cares about the details of health care reform."

http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-plank/understanding-joe-lieberman

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

What is Conservatism right now?

I want to tackle a few questions about the current state of political thought. The first of these, as the title indicates, is Conservatism. I think I'm drawn to analyze it first because it appears to be in retreat (in America at least) and I have a thing for the little guy.

The best I can come up with at this point is a list of qualities I've observed (mostly through the media).
Conservatives:
- Resist Change (duh) but are anti-establishment when the establishment creates change
- Are anti-intellectual but claim to be heir to an intellectual movement
- Believe in an absolute truths unqualified by evidence (I don't mean that to sound harsh or combative but I can't think of another way to put it. Faith perhaps. Feelings and personal credulity > data and debate)
- Are prone to conspiracy theories (this one comes from more personal observation than just the media)
- Are Anti-statist and anti-government
- Seem to support individual liberties except in two situations: 1. National security is at stake (the Jack Bauer scenario) and 2. Traditional societal structures are threatened (i.e. family and marriage).
- Seem split about international affairs. Many see the US as a force for good in the world and argue for the use of "hard power" to accomplish that good. Yet, a vocal minority (libertarian leaning I believe) want less interventions. The third part see US foreign policy as a means to further US interests (i.e. combat terrorism, confront challenges to US hegemony by rogue states)
- Believe, for one reason or another, that the United States (and its citizens) is better than any other country. Basically, conservatives are American exceptionalists. This may help to explain why a party that promotes free trade will also make a lot of noise about "buying American" and protecting American jobs.

That pretty much sums up my list. Most issues I can think of fall into those categories. Let me know what you think.

First Post

I want to welcome everyone to the new Blog. Our authors were all involved in a 1 1/2 year long Facebook message chain but that got to be too much to deal with. Plus outside opinions are a good thing. If we actually get this up and running, and share with friends and family, we might have a good little blog.

I don't care much about subject matter or topics of inquiry. We've previously devoted out efforts to politics, economics, a bit of literature and history and other random interests. I see no reason why that can't continue.