We've had a lot of news recently about folks not seeking reelection this year. I want to know what you guys think about it all.
What are the decisive issues going to be?
Can the GOP gain seats, or is it still stuck out in the woods?
Can we consider this election a referendum on Obama, or is it a referendum on the Democratic congress?
What role will the health care bill, the economy and the recent row over national security play in the coming months?
Friday: Employment Report
6 hours ago
I think the Dems will keep the House but lose their supermajority in the Senate. I actually think the health care bill will be a big win for the Dems when it's all said and done and will be the centerpiece of their campaign strategy ("we passed health care reform and defeated the evil insurance companies when no one else could, here's how this is going to make your life better..."). I think the Republicans main campaign focus will be on opposition to the stimulus, not the health care bill. The Republicans will also harp on "taking away Obama's majority" in the house and senate (or some similar line) and play up the "Dems have too much power right now" argument. Depending on what happens in the Senate between now and the election, the energy/climate bill could play a big role in this election. Financial regulation could also be a big issue, but I think the Senate will focus on the climate/energy bill next since the House already passed a bill. I think the energy/climate bill will then become a big part of the midterm elections, perhaps affecting the elections more than either the stimulus or health care bills, considering how short the electorate's memory is. Unfortunately I think this means the Senate's version of the energy/climate bill will be very watered down and do little good. At this point I'd almost be happy if the only thing the energy/climate bill did was get rid of all fossil fuel subsidies and mandate a national renewable energy standard of ~20%.
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