The Middle East and Neocons.

Here's what I want to know (yes, I'm finally asking a question on a blog claiming to be devoted to questions):

Will the neoconservatives try to paint Tunisia (and maybe Egypt and any subsequent revolts) as a victory for their world view?

The idea is: put a functional Arab democracy into the region and the various dictatorships will fall by popular uprising. For some reason democracy magically cancels out fundamentalism and the US is victorious in the war on terror.

While I don't agree with this view, I think neocons may start making these claims. We'll see them claiming the Iraq was was indeed justified in these terms; indeed, it is one of the four reasons Thomas Freedman cited back in 2004 for his continued support of the war.

Here's where things fall apart for the neocons (and we faced a similar possibility in Iraq for a while): Is it still a victory if the democracy empowers the exact people you were trying to eliminate, the fundamentalists. The Tunisian revolution was against a fairly moderate (by regional standards) dictator and happened in part because Kirsten Dunst's his wife's extravagant lifestyle was incompatible with Islamic values.

As Dan Drezner puts it: Which neoconservative impulse will win out -- the embrace of democratic longing, or the fear of Islamic movements taking power?