How's that Triumvirate thingy going?

I posted a few weeks ago about how our new government is best thought of as a ruling Triumvirate split between the Trump administration, the GOP, and the right-wing base. The tensions between these three and the way in which they seek to gain each other's favor seemed particularly useful when trying to think through how our government is going to function.

How is that working out? I'd say good. While we haven't seen much movement yet on the three areas I identified, (education, infrastructure, and health care) the Triumvirate has been active in regulatory reforms and immigration. In both of these areas the Triumvirate framework works.

Immigration reforms by the Trump admin took two forms. The biggest and most covered is the ban on travel from 7 majority muslim nations which were set aside as being terrorist havens. Now, this is really stupid for a number or reasons and basically aids our terrorist enemies in the recruitment of a new generation of extremists. It's a shit policy top to bottom. However, the Triumvirate makes clear that having an effective policy was never the goal. Security was never the goal. Enhanced vetting of potential refugees was never the goal. Instead, this was the latest in what is sure to be a long line of executive orders designed to appeal to the right-wing base that elected Trump.

His latest approval ratings are only 44%. That's the lowest of any new president yet that's a measure of support across the entire public. As I said before, Trump does not care one single bit about the public that did not vote for him. Not only does he question their existence (3-5 million illegal immigrant votes) but he actively pursues policy to piss them off. He does this because it appeals to the millions of voters who got Trump elected. If you single out immigration, 42% approve. If you single out this specific ban, 47% favor it.

You don't have to dig deep to realize that his executive orders on the border wall and muslim bans are meant to build the perception that he is keeping his campaign promises. The people who elected Trump like these policies. Keeping the public that elected Trump happy with and engaged in the White House's activities is absolutely key to Trump's strategy. The public supporting him is the bludgeon he needs to keep the GOP Congress under control. The only dissent that's been seen so far from the Republicans is on his education secretary and even then it's mostly meaningless. Congress fears being voted out of office for appearing unsupportive of the president. They also stand to gain several Senate seats in two years as there are Democratic senators up for reelection in places that flipped from Obama to Trump. Trump knows this and will use it as leverage.

In addition to pleasing his base, we saw Trump sign executive orders to move against environmental and financial regulation. The base is, at best, ambivalent about the specific regulations he is seeking to undo, the Republican Congress on the other hand loves it. Obviously repealing regulations is a Republican wet-dream but executive orders are limited in that scope. The president can't undo laws. What congress loves is that Trump is outlining a direction for them to use the power of Congressional Review.

Congressional Review gives congress the power to pass resolutions of disapproval to effectively nullify laws, sections of laws, or updated enforcement practices of older laws passed 60 "legislative days" before the end of a president's term of office. In this case 60 "legislative days" means anything president Obama did after June 3rd, 2016. The areas Trump identified in his executive orders this week are pointers to congress for where they will not see any pushback from the executive should they disapprove. Dodd-Frank's scope was expanded, for example, to include a new Fiduciary rule which can be removed by Congressional Review. Others include the stream buffer rule, methane waste rule, the extraction rule, the blacklisting rule for federal contractors, and a restriction on giving guns to the mentally ill.

The base is happy. Congress is happy. Trump remains large and in charge. The Triumvirate is, for the moment, stable. Coming up this week, we'll see the Trump admin promoting the Christian right. We received a preview of his plans at the National Prayer Breakfast this week.

Our republic was formed on the basis that freedom is not a gift from government, but that freedom is a gift from God. It was the great Thomas Jefferson who said the God who gave us life gave us liberty. Jefferson asked, “Can the liberties of a nation be secure when we have removed a conviction that these liberties are the gift of God?” Among those freedoms is the right to worship according to our own beliefs. That is why I will get rid of and totally destroy the Johnson Amendment and allow our representatives of faith to speak freely and without fear of retribution. I will do that. Remember.

The Triumvirate implications ought to be clear. Buckle in for another week!