Forms of Inquiry: 7/27/2015 Today's Inquiries

Trying to be more regular with my posts.

The Links:

The scariest lesson of No Child Left Behind. We don't know how to fix schools. That's the lesson.

Here's a pair of Krugman posts. First, The Disappearing Entitlement Crisis.

Bear in mind that the current US budget deficit is below the level at which the debt/GDP ratio can be stabilized, in other words poses no problem. Looking forward, population aging will expand that deficit by a few percent of GDP, but that’s well within the range that could be closed with moderate tax hikes, cuts in pointless military spending, etc.. Nor is there a big rush: nothing terrible will happen if we don’t immediately decide how we’ll pay for projected benefits in the year 2050.

And, he realizes that in certain circles, ignorance and incompetence are cultivated to improve legitmacy.

And this immediately makes me think of one of the mysteries of economic “debate” in America, namely the preference of the right not just for hacks but for incompetent hacks. Here’s what I wrote:

I suspect that the incompetence is actually desirable at some level — a smart hack might turn honest, or something,

The Determinants of Intergenerational Transfer of Wealth.

Comparing the relationship between the wealth of adopted and biological parents and that of the adopted child, we find that, even prior to any inheritance, there is a substantial role for environment and a much smaller role for genetics. We also examine the role played by bequests and find that, when they are taken into account, the role of adoptive parental wealth becomes much stronger. Our findings suggest that wealth transmission is not primarily because children from wealthier families are inherently more talented or more able but that, even in relatively egalitarian Sweden, wealth begets wealth.

A rather long post about effective altruism with the lovely anecdote of The Play Pump. You know where this is headed:

Doing Good Better opens, just as you would expect, with an uplifting story of a wonderful person with a brilliant idea to save the world. The PlayPump uses a merry-go-round to pump water. Fun transformed into labor and life saving clean water! The energetic driver of the idea quits his job and invests his life in the project. Africa! Children on merry-go-rounds! Innovation! What could be better? It’s the perfect charitable meme and the idea attracts millions of dollars of funding from celebrities like Steve Case, Jay-Z, Laura Bush and Bill Clinton.

Remember how all that subprime debt in the US was highly rated by the Ratings Agencies who were supposed to assess the risk? Well it looks like China is going to have the same problem very soon.

Around 97% of existing yuan-denominated bonds hold ratings of double-A to triple-A—the best a company can get.

With nine Chinese ratings firms to choose among, “bond issuers are encouraged to pick the highest ratings among agencies,” said Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong Global, the country’s third-biggest ratings company in terms of market share. The fact that the bonds are rated double-A-minus or above, they “are not without risks,” he said.

Speaking of China, here's a nice recap of how the world's last superpower, Britain, treated China.

Opium was outlawed in China.

British merchants smuggled it in from India. Their diligent efforts led to a surge in the number of Chinese dependent on the mother of heroin and morphine, who charmed them with false happiness and ruined their lives.

The smugglers were fed up with the hindrances they faced at the hands of Chinese authorities. Developing the market required free trade, and free trade demanded war.