Today's Inquiries 7/26/15

I've been unable to post recently because I've not had computer access at work (which is where I do most of my blogging these days). I aim to remedy that situation in the upcoming weeks.


The Links:

First, another quick link about how Elite:Dangerous is devoted to keeping its in game universe as close to our real galaxy as possible. Pluto will get a face lift to put it in line with the recently release photos. But, and this is the best part, the simulated planetary surface which they are replacing modeled the real Pluto with a good degree of accuracy.

"We're pleased by how closely our simulation has matched the 'smooth' heart-shaped area on Pluto," Frontier Developments noted (the composites pointed to a significant, lighter-shaded patch, if not the heart itself.) Frontier went on to say that Elite: Dangerous is set in 3001, which would mean "five more orbits and five more heating/cooling cycles" for Pluto, so who knows, that smooth patch might cover the world by then.

All you local-only hippies and farmer's market fanatics are going to have more diarrhea. This study was complied with CDC data, some of which was managed by my lovely wife!

In sum, what we find is:

1. A positive relationship between the number of farmers markets and the number of reported outbreaks of food-borne illness in the average state-year.
2. A positive relationship between the number of farmers markets and the number of reported cases of food-borne illness in the average state-year.
3. A positive relationship between the number of farmers markets and the number of reported outbreaks of Campylobacter jejuni in the average state-year.
4. A positive relationship between the number of farmers markets and the number of reported cases of Campylobacter jejuni in the average state-year.
5. Six dogs that didn’t bark, i.e., no systematic relationship between the number of farmers markets and the number of outbreaks or cases of norovirus, Salmonella enterica, Clostridium perfringens, E. coli, Staphylococcus (i.e., staph), or scombroid food poisoning.
6. When controlling for the number of farmers markets, there is a negative relationship between the number of farmers markets that accept SNAP and food-borne illness in the average state-year.
7. A doubling of the number of farmers markets in the average state-year would be associated with a relatively modest economic cost of about $900,000 in terms of additional cases of food-borne illness.

Measuring Unemployment. The headline rate is one thing but there's also a measure of weekly/monthly unemployment insurance claims. We're at the lowest claim rate in 40 years. Thanks Obama.

A Theory of Very Serious People. I recommend reading the whole thing but here's the gist/etymology if its current use:

Unless my memory is badly mistaken (it might be), Duncan Black arrived at the concept of Very Serious People during the intra-US Iraq War debates. Duncan, Paul and others (including many of us at CT) were very, very unhappy with how debate on the Iraq War was conducted. Those who advocated the pro-invasion case were treated as serious thinkers, of enormous gravitas, who were taking the tough decisions necessary to protect America’s national security. Those who disagreed were treated as flakes, fifth columnists, Commies and sneaking regarders. As we know, despite the agreement of the Very Serious People that the Iraq war was a grave and urgent necessity, it turned out to be a colossal clusterfuck. As we also know, many of the People who were Very Serious about Iraq still continue to be Very Serious about a multitude of other topics on our television screens and in our op-ed pages.

Donald Trump is here to stay, even if his candidacy fails, he will leave an indelible mark on the GOP.

In a field of 16 candidates, when one polls a quarter of the vote it is the equivalent of a landslide. Mr Trump’s detractors, who form arguably one of the largest bipartisan coalitions in memory, comfort themselves that he is simply on an ego trip that will turn sour. That may be true. But they are missing the point. The legions of Republicans flocking to Mr Trump’s banner are not going anywhere. If he crashes, which he eventually must, they will find another champion.

This is the principal problem facing informed decision making in the US:

It’s expensive to persuade someone to believe something that isn’t true. Persuading someone that _nothing_ is true, that every “fact” represents a hidden agenda, is a far more efficient way to paralyze citizens and keep them from acting. It’s a dark art, one with a long past in Russia and in the US, and one we’re now living with online. 

Speaking of which, a man is being sued by the state of Georgia for posting copies of state laws online. Sorry citizen, these laws are not for you to see or read. Please go directly to jail.

SmartGPA: Using your smartphone to predict grades.

We show that there are a number of important behavioral factors automatically inferred from smartphones that significantly correlate with term and cumulative GPA, including time series analysis of activity, conversational interaction, mobility, class attendance, studying, and partying.

More on the fantastic illusion that is Silicon Valley:

Put another way, amid a sea of headlines about billion-dollar valuations are many thousands of employees who stand to lose countless millions of dollars unless companies start to go public, or else sell to an acquirer.

Reading Jane Austen is good for your brain. Here comes the neuroscience!

A wonderful article about the silly assumptions we are making about web design and comparing it to the way airplanes were designed and dreamed about in the 1960s. It contains the following quote which I find funny:

The Il-62 exemplifies a Soviet design approach I like to think of as "add engines until airborne".

+Jason Jones reviews World War Z.